Thought Center
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June 10, 2026
The Case for $140 Brent by August 2026
100 days in, the Strait of Hormuz is still shut. The inventory model is the most mispriced it has ever been. Here is the case, point by point. On May 27, one tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz. The pre-war baseline was 50 per day. The world lost 16.4 mb/d of supply in May alone. That is larger than the combined output of Russia and Saudi Arabia. And the market, which briefly touched $120 in April before retreating to $85 on demand destruction headlines and deal optimism, has spent the last six weeks convincing itself this resolves cleanly and quickly.
June 9, 2026
Peak profits, peak divergence, and an oil shock the market hasn't priced in
Markets Recorded the Deepest Large-Midcap Divergence in Two Decades Nifty Midcap 150 at an All-Time High while Nifty 50 is −9.2% from its peak — the only prior comparable episode (Aug 2015) ended with both indices down 18% in lockstep. The mid-tier offered no safe harbour.
May 21, 2026
Playbook for surviving $100+ oil
Market Overview: No end in sight With Hormuz still closed and oil likely to sustain at $100/bbl in the medium term, the macro setup for India remains uncomfortable despite the strong quarter for earnings.
May 18, 2026
Records capital returns against a backdrop of macro headwinds
Market Overview: Structural bull run interrupted by $200 oil and 6% 10yr UST Oil shock with no historical analogue: Precious metals are confronting a punishing confluence of cross-currents as the macro regime violently re-prices around the Strait of Hormuz shutdown. Global crude inventories are drawing
March 25, 2026
Global Flight to Liquidity
Market Overview: Global Flight to Liquidity Gold, the asset the world runs to in a crisis, sold off at the fastest pace in a generation, in near-perfect lockstep with oil. What the market is labelling a reversal of the gold bull thesis is, in fact, its most powerful confirmation. The cause of the reversal was a classic flight to liquidity in the most uncertain as well as trying times for all asset classes.
March 13, 2026
A long road to recovery
Market Overview: A long road to recovery In the last edition (link) of our take on the market we spoke about the high probability of yet another black swan event - the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Within the range of scenarios for that event, the worst case scenario is playing out.
February 20, 2026
In Dire Straits
Market Overview: In Dire Straits Financial markets, particularly oil and energy equities, are currently pricing in an elevated probability of imminent U.S. military action against Iran, a scenario that many analysts believe could provoke a retaliatory closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A potential US-Iran war would be a long, multi-week campaign (per Axios), with a White
February 9, 2026
Narratives and Fables
Market Overview: Narratives and Fables Precious metals corrected in spectacular fashion driven by a expedited leverage unwind due to higher margin requirements on Comex and further fueled by a change in the Fed narrative after President Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair.
January 13, 2026
Record 2025 inflows, a renewed assault on Fed independence, Gold to $5000/oz in 2026?
Market Overview: Record 2025 inflows, a renewed assault on Fed independence, Gold to $5000/oz in 2026? Gold’s rally has been driven in large part by growing fears that Federal Reserve independence is under threat, concerns that intensified this week as Trump renewed attacks on Chair Jerome Powell and reports surfaced of a Justice Department probe touching the Fed.
December 9, 2025
In Bubble Territory?
In Bubble Territory? The BIS recently weighed in on gold’s recent price movements, concluding that the metal has entered bubble territory and cautioning that a significant correction may be on the horizon.
December 2, 2025
(Finally) all-time highs
Market Overview: (Finally) all-time highs After navigating a series of headwinds, the Nifty 50 finally broke out to a new all-time high. Despite the persistent noise around tariffs, hawkish Fed commentary and stretched valuations, our outlook in recent months remained steady for two key reasons.
November 12, 2025
Record quarter for gold, 3Q earnings summary
Market Overview: A quarter for the record books Blistering 3Q for gold Gold prices ran up ~$1000/oz after breaking out of their multi-month range driven by record investment demand and strong central bank buying, more that offsetting the continued demand destruction in jewellery purchases.
October 15, 2025
Echoes of 2018
Market Overview: Echoes of 2018 The market setup today is eerily similar to 2018. During Trade War 1.0, both small caps and large caps bottomed into the announcement before rebounding over the following month. Participation in this rebound was very narrow, with just over 50% of the small-cap 100 above the 200DMA compared to 70% for the Nifty 50.
September 10, 2025
All-time highs on the horizon
Market Overview: All-time highs on the horizon Since the end of July, the Nifty 50 has notably failed to correct in any meaningful way, demonstrating remarkable resilience despite numerous headwinds - tariffs, low earnings growth and elevated valuations, to name a few. The index has consolidated in a tight range, effectively digesting prior gains without significant downside pressure.
September 3, 2025
Melt-up
Market Overview: Melt-up Gold breaks out of its range Gold has finally broken out of its multi-month consolidation range after Powell gave the green light at Jackson Hole. Miners had front-run the speech, having outperformed gold in the run up to the speech - the clearest tell-tale sign an impending melt-up.
August 25, 2025
2Q earnings for week ending August 1
Market Overview: Approaching a long-term bottom
July 28, 2025
July 2025 edition
Market Overview: Finding value in an expensive market Broad market valuations offer limited margin of safety. A subset of 136 non-financial companies within the Nifty 200 currently trades at a median P/E of 38x—significantly above the pre-pandemic peak of 27x in 2018 and 33x in 2022.
June 10, 2026
The Case for $140 Brent by August 2026
100 days in, the Strait of Hormuz is still shut. The inventory model is the most mispriced it has ever been. Here is the case, point by point. On May 27, one tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz. The pre-war baseline was 50 per day. The world lost 16.4 mb/d of supply in May alone. That is larger than the combined output of Russia and Saudi Arabia. And the market, which briefly touched $120 in April before retreating to $85 on demand destruction headlines and deal optimism, has spent the last six weeks convincing itself this resolves cleanly and quickly.
June 9, 2026
Peak profits, peak divergence, and an oil shock the market hasn't priced in
Markets Recorded the Deepest Large-Midcap Divergence in Two Decades Nifty Midcap 150 at an All-Time High while Nifty 50 is −9.2% from its peak — the only prior comparable episode (Aug 2015) ended with both indices down 18% in lockstep. The mid-tier offered no safe harbour.
May 21, 2026
Playbook for surviving $100+ oil
Market Overview: No end in sight With Hormuz still closed and oil likely to sustain at $100/bbl in the medium term, the macro setup for India remains uncomfortable despite the strong quarter for earnings.
May 18, 2026
Records capital returns against a backdrop of macro headwinds
Market Overview: Structural bull run interrupted by $200 oil and 6% 10yr UST Oil shock with no historical analogue: Precious metals are confronting a punishing confluence of cross-currents as the macro regime violently re-prices around the Strait of Hormuz shutdown. Global crude inventories are drawing
March 25, 2026
Global Flight to Liquidity
Market Overview: Global Flight to Liquidity Gold, the asset the world runs to in a crisis, sold off at the fastest pace in a generation, in near-perfect lockstep with oil. What the market is labelling a reversal of the gold bull thesis is, in fact, its most powerful confirmation. The cause of the reversal was a classic flight to liquidity in the most uncertain as well as trying times for all asset classes.
March 13, 2026
A long road to recovery
Market Overview: A long road to recovery In the last edition (link) of our take on the market we spoke about the high probability of yet another black swan event - the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Within the range of scenarios for that event, the worst case scenario is playing out.
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